Add TANF takeup rate (22%) to calibration pipeline#542
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…line Creates parameters/take_up/tanf.yaml with 22% takeup rate based on the HHS ASPE 24th Welfare Indicators Report (TRIM3 estimate for 2022) and Urban Institute analysis. Adds takes_up_tanf_if_eligible to SIMPLE_TAKEUP_VARS so the calibration pipeline rerandomizes TANF takeup per census block. Without this, takes_up_tanf_if_eligible defaults to True for all eligible SPM units, producing ~$32B in simulated TANF (vs ~$7-9B admin target). With 22% random takeup the model produces ~$5.3B pre-calibration, which the reweighting step should push toward the $9B calibration target. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Feb 19, 2026
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Summary
parameters/take_up/tanf.yamlwith 22% takeup rate based on HHS ASPE 24th Welfare Indicators Report (TRIM3 estimate, 2022)takes_up_tanf_if_eligibletoSIMPLE_TAKEUP_VARSso the calibration pipeline rerandomizes TANF takeup per census blockContext
Without TANF takeup,
takes_up_tanf_if_eligibledefaults to True for all eligible SPM units. Combined with the negative income cap fix in PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#7433, the model produces ~$32B in simulated TANF vs ~$7-9B admin target. With 22% random takeup, pre-calibration TANF drops to ~$5.3B, which the reweighting step should push toward the $9B calibration target.Test plan
tanf.yamlloads correctly in the parameter treetakes_up_tanf_if_eligibleis rerandomized🤖 Generated with Claude Code